Its impact will be felt for years to come. You owe it to yourself to go beyond the simplified official story. This is an extremely complicated story with numerous players and motives.
Applying the preceding economic concepts, we may then derive various economic- and financial models and principles.
As above, the two usual areas of focus are Asset Pricing and Corporate Finance, the first being the perspective of providers of capital, the second of users of capital. Here, and for almost all other financial economics models, the questions addressed are typically framed in terms of "time, uncertainty, options, and information",   as will be seen below.
The amount of money to be transferred in the future is uncertain. Applying this framework, with the above concepts, leads to the required models. This derivation begins with the assumption of "no uncertainty" and is then expanded to incorporate the other considerations.
This division sometimes denoted " deterministic " and "random",  or " stochastic ". The Fisher separation theoremasserts that the objective of a corporation will be the maximization of its present value, regardless of the preferences of its shareholders.
Related is the Modigliani—Miller theoremwhich shows that, under certain conditions, the value of a firm is unaffected by how that firm is financed, and depends neither on its dividend policy nor its decision to raise capital by issuing stock or selling debt.
The proof here proceeds using arbitrage arguments, and acts as a benchmark for evaluating the effects of factors outside the model that do affect value.
The mechanism for determining corporate value is provided by The Theory of Investment Value John Burr Williamswhich proposes that the value of an asset should be calculated using "evaluation by the rule of present worth".
Thus, for a common stock, the intrinsic, long-term worth is the present value of its future net cashflows, in the form of dividends. What remains to be determined is the appropriate discount rate. Later developments show that, "rationally", i. Net present value NPV is the direct extension of these ideas typically applied to Corporate Finance decisioning introduced by Joel Dean in For other results, as well as specific models developed here, see the list of "Equity valuation" topics under Outline of finance Discounted cash flow valuation.
Bond valuationin that cashflows coupons and return of principal are deterministic, may proceed in the same fashion. Note that in many treatments bond valuation precedes equity valuationunder which cashflows dividends are not "known" per se.
Williams and onward allow for forecasting as to these — based on historic ratios or published policy — and cashflows are then treated as essentially deterministic; see below under Corporate finance theory.
These "certainty" results are all commonly employed under corporate finance; uncertainty is the focus of "asset pricing models", as follows. Uncertainty[ edit ] For "choice under uncertainty" the twin assumptions of rationality and market efficiencyas more closely defined, lead to modern portfolio theory MPT with its capital asset pricing model CAPM —an equilibrium-based result—and to the Black—Scholes—Merton theory BSM; often, simply Black—Scholes for option pricing —an arbitrage-free result.
Note that the latter derivative prices are calculated such that they are arbitrage-free with respect to the more fundamental, equilibrium determined, securities prices; see asset pricing.
Briefly, and intuitively—and consistent with Arbitrage-free pricing and equilibrium above—the linkage is as follows. In doing so, traders contribute to more and more "correct", i.
The EMH implicitly assumes that average expectations constitute an "optimal forecast", i.
The EMH does allow that when faced with new information, some investors may overreact and some may underreact, but what is required, however, is that investors' reactions follow a normal distribution —so that the net effect on market prices cannot be reliably exploited to make an abnormal profit.
In the competitive limit, then, market prices will reflect all available information and prices can only move in response to news;  and this, of course, could be "good" or "bad", major or minor: Thus, if prices of financial assets are broadly efficient, then deviations from these equilibrium values could not last for long.
On Random walks in stock prices: Under these conditions investors can then be assumed to act rationally: Here, as under the certainty-case above, the specific assumption as to pricing is that prices are calculated as the present value of expected future dividends,    as based on currently available information.
What is required though is a theory for determining the appropriate discount rate, i. Relatedly, rationality—in the sense of arbitrage-exploitation—gives rise to Black—Scholes; option values here ultimately consistent with the CAPM.9/11 Facts Summary Page Summary of 9/11 Facts From Major Media.
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Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. He was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of .