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Advanced Search Abstract An emerging consensus on the future of macroeconomics views the incorporation of a role for financial intermediation, labour market frictions, and household heterogeneity in the presence of uninsurable unemployment risk as key needed extensions to the benchmark macro framework.
I argue that this is welcome, but not sufficient for macro—and international macro—to tackle the menu of issues that have been facing policy-makers since the recent global crisis.
For this purpose, macro needs more micro than the benchmark set-up has been incorporating so far. Specifically, artificial separations between business cycle analysis, the study of stabilization policies, and growth macro, as well as between international macroeconomics and international trade, must be overcome.
I review selected literature contributions that took steps in this direction; outline a number of important, promising directions for future research; and discuss methodological issues in the development of this agenda.
Introduction The global financial crisis GFC of and the Great Recession GR that followed have prompted a re-examination of the toolkit for macroeconomic analysis that should be used as benchmark for teaching, research, and policy advice.
The emerging consensus is that the new benchmark should make it possible to explain why the crisis happened, why the recovery was extremely slow, and the connection between cyclical dynamics and longer-run growth.
The consensus is also that benchmark macroeconomics can no longer afford to abstract from such features of reality as heterogeneity across agents, uninsurable risk, and unemployment. The consensus points toward a framework that includes endogenous capital formation, a role for the financial sector, and a merger of the HANK and SAM frameworks.
The field would continue being perceived as incapable of confronting reality regardless of whether this perception is entirely fair or not. Specifically, it seems to me high time for macroeconomics to move beyond the representation of firm behaviour in terms of production by a constant number of symmetric firms that produce either the same good under perfect competition or a fixed range of goods under monopolistic competition between a continuum of firms.
Unemployment in the aftermath of the GFC happened also because a large number of firms failed and firms that did not fail reduced the number of active production lines.
Credit market freezing was central to firm failures and decisions to cut production lines. Heterogeneous efficiency across firms implied that only the most efficient producers were able to survive, but their activity was slowed down by stagnant demand.
Less firms are being created, and firms grow more slowly than they used to. In this light, it is no surprise that the US and other economies have been struggling with low productivity growth. I strongly believe that, if we want to provide students and young researchers with a set of macro tools that can address the most important questions of the last decade—and those likely to arise in the future—macro needs micro MNM—probably the sweetest acronym you will ever see in macroeconomics: The standard toolkit for macroeconomic analysis of fluctuations and policy must be extended to include producer-level dynamics of entry and exit, heterogeneity across firms, and the implications of these dynamics and heterogeneity for the macroeconomy.
This does not require the creation of a completely new set of tools: What needs to be recognized is that market entry and exit do not matter only for the long-run growth in the absence of uncertainty that growth economists usually focus on; domestic and foreign market entry and exit by heterogeneous producers do not matter only in the steady-state, balanced-trade environment most trade economists restrict their attention to.
Growth is the result of entry and exit decisions that are taken under uncertainty during the business cycle. These decisions will contribute to shaping the cycle, and longer-run growth will be affected by cyclical dynamics through hysteresis effects. Heterogeneity will crucially affect the allocation of resources across producers and aggregate productivity.
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It will be among the determinants of what the economy trades and how it responds to foreign competition. Some results of this literature have begun informing policy advice in important ways. I briefly review the state of the art in this area below, focusing on selected contributions to model development.
This literature provides the foundation for extensions of the framework in a number of directions. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes what the literature has already accomplished by briefly describing the main ingredients of some representative, existing models and their key results.
Section III describes what I consider the most important directions for future research. Section IV discusses methodological issues. The state of the art This section reviews selected contributions to the state of the art in macro and international macro theory in which producer-level dynamics contribute to fluctuations.
I focus on models that assume monopolistic competition or other forms of monopoly power, as they lend themselves most directly to providing the foundation for sticky-price extensions. The set of papers I mention is by no means intended to be a complete survey of the existing literature, and it includes much of my own work.
It is the set of papers that allows me most transparently to describe how producer-level dynamics can be integrated in models of fluctuations, and to connect this to present-day questions of interest.
The model—referred to as the BGM model below—assumes that consumers derive utility from having access to a larger set of products, but the existence of entry costs implies that only a subset of the products consumers would like to have access to is actually available at each point in time.
The consumption aggregator is not restricted to the familiar Dixit—Stiglitz specification, but it takes a general homothetic form. Different from earlier business cycle models with monopolistic competition and endogenous entry that assume fixed entry costs and a free entry condition that implies zero profits on a period-by-period basis, the BGM model assumes sunk costs and a time-to-build lag.
Entrants spend the first period setting up their production lines, and they begin producing and generating profits only in the following period.
In this model economy, investment takes the form of creation of new production lines, financed by households with their savings.
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